Jon Daniels MSc.
Architecture: Advanced Environmental & Energy Studies
London Colney has had a varied and exciting past. Close to where the Mosquito airplane was secretly designed & built and home to one of the largest supermarkets in the UK. So what of the future? This article will consider population change and its impact on the environment.
Population Growth
In spite of the current recession the UK’s population is expected to grow from 61.3 million today to around 70 million by 2030. London Colney’s population was 7742 in 2001, with national population growth expected to be 20.3% since then that would mean the area’s population growing to 9313 by 2030. So where will these extra people live?
Living Space
People need to live somewhere. London Colney has expanded significantly over the last century, and there is no obvious reason why this trend will not continue. The recent development of Napsbury Park Hospital has absorbed some of the expected rise in population, but most have come from outside the area rather than from within. Other options include developing brownfield sites such as pubs, business parks, and other businesses on the high street. Would you consider developing some of the park space in London Colney? Or a housing estate on one of the agricultural fields? Maybe houses could be converted into maisonettes, or knocked down and turned into flats.
Jobs and Families
London Colney has a higher proportion of young families (27%) than in the rest of Hertfordshire (24%). Parents will need to find jobs to support their families. The local retail park is the main employer in the area, and there are other businesses, but will they be enough? According to the 2001 census two thirds of people travel to work by car, which suggests most employment is outside of The Colneys district. Population increase will bring more cars, and then one needs to consider the impact on the road infrastructure. With the increase in Internet and mobile speeds home working may become more viable. This would help reduce the number of car journeys and also possibly help maintain or revive the local high street during the week. More jobs could be generated locally helping the higher than average (compared to Hertfordshire) young population find work. But I think that most jobs will be provided in the surrounding area rather than from within London Colney., probably in Hatfield.
Energy Efficiency
The Government is taking measures to improve the environmental standards of new housing stock, but the majority of energy efficiency will need to come from existing houses. Cheap energy from the North Sea is running out. Rising energy bills will mean that we need to make our homes more energy efficient. What is London Colney doing at the moment? What will homes look like in twenty year’s time? I doubt that every house will have a wind turbine or that many will have solar panels. The quickest and cheapest short-term options will be to improve insulation, upgrade boilers and double-glaze windows.
Waste
With more people and industry comes waste. We are running out of space fast as we do not like landfill in our back yards, which means the cost is going up. Maybe the community will make more use of this waste. Possibly creating bio-gas from food waste, or even using waste products to create new ones that can be sold rather than paying for it to be taken away. Maybe London Colney could become a local centre for recycling?
Traffic
With more people come more vehicles. Main roads already struggle with current rush-hour traffic levels, so changes will be required to handle more traffic. With traffic comes traffic pollution. Hopefully within twenty years the reliance on fossil fuels will diminish and mitigate this issue, but that in itself does not solve congestion. What if London Colney had a train station such as Napsbury Station on the line to St. Pancras which opened in 1905 but closed in 1959. This stop could be reopened but it would not necessarily reduce congestion within the area. Can more use be made of buses? Maybe the St. Alban’s Liftshare scheme will help. What about a local area bicycle scheme? Central London will have one by the summer 2010, is it viable for the Colneys to have a smaller scheme based on similar principles?
Railway Station
Imagine for a moment that London Colney got a train station, what would the impact be? The planned Freight Terminal put forward this proposal earlier this year, so it is not complete fantasy. I believe it would create a new Borehamwood. Borehamwood has become a cheaper commuter hub for young families who cannot afford house prices in the suburbs nearer to London. One of the impacts has been to push up house prices, which in turn has caused some local families to be priced out and moved out of the area. Both the economic and social mix of Borehamwood has changed. If a train station was introduced the pressure to develop land around London Colney would be immense. Under new central executive powers pushing through planning applications would be easier.
I do not think there will be major changes to the area unless London Colney becomes a commuter hub with a train station into London as Borehamwood has. Then change on an unprecedented scale would ensue.